Here are the June/2021 MLS single-family statistics for Austin, TX:
I put up both June and May’s numbers together since I’ve mentioned a possible shift in our market the past month or so along with many others...some more loudly than others. I say that because this is a bit like guessing where the stock market will end up on any given day, week, or month. It is part numbers, statistics and a good dose of professional opinion by a lot of people.
We were looking for June’s numbers to substantiate what many saw as a slight slowdown in our market that began in May. Seems odd to talk about a record-setting, red-hot market like Austin has seen for the past 9-10 months slowing down...kind of like saying a car is slowing down to “only” 100 mph from 150 mph! While I do see some lower percentages in June when compared to May, it isn’t enough for me to make a definitive statement that we’ve reached our peak in this incredible bull run. There certainly isn’t any “bubble” that is popping like some have said. One month is just numbers, 2 months in a row might mean something, while 3 months in a row will give us a more definitive indication but we won’t have those numbers for another 30 days. So, let’s look at how 2021 has shaped up so far since we are halfway into the year:
When you compare 2021 so far with 2020 which was our Covid year and 2019 which was “pre-Covid” I think you will agree that we would have to continue to fall substantially the remainder of this year to have a concern. I know I’ve been a broken record lately, but if you just look at the inventory number, you see that we’ve had .40 months this year, 1.2 in 2020 (even with Covid) and 2.3 in 2019. When we return to somewhere around 1.5 to 2.5 months, our market will become more available to more home buyers which will be better for our whole market. Even then, we would have to go up substantially more to get to 6.0 months of inventory (how long it would take to sell all homes currently on the market at the current sales rate) which is considered a market in “equilibrium” (ie-neither home sellers nor home buyers have an advantage over the other). Let’s all hope we get to 1.5 to 2.5 months soon!
(512) 853-0110 or robert@AustinTxHomeSales.com
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