Here are the January/2023 MLS single-family statistics for Austin, TX:
2023 started off, quite frankly, better than I had expected even though it had all red categories and the same shade of red as December had as you may recall. However, we need to consider a very important fact: the January numbers above are compared to Jan/2022 which was one of our last months with the “Covid-19 effect” before mortgage rates began a steep climb. This helped put the brakes on our 2-year Covid-frenzied real estate market. So, we can expect more red categories for the next few more months until our 2022 market slowed down and we are comparing to a more normal Austin market. Here are the Jan/2022 numbers where you can see that our only 2 deep red categories were listings increasing (from a record low 962 in 2021 for a January) and inventory which went from .44 months in 2021 (a record for January) to only .60 in 2022 (another record).
Also, a
buyer of a median-priced home in Jan/2022 would have their value drop only
$24,580 and an average-priced home would have gone down only $10,615.
Keep in mind that median prices in Jan/2022 increased 30%
over Jan/2021 and average prices increased 24%, so some drop off
last month is to be expected. I project another month or two of these
price declines when compared to 2022 and Austin metro homes getting back into
the positive this year with a single-digit percentage price increase for all of
2023. Don’t forget to factor in current equity gain for those who bought years
ago: someone who bought an average-priced home in Austin in Jan/2018 (5
years ago) still has $181,194 equity (+58.4% total, or 11.7%/year).
Now that
we are settling back into our normal real estate market cycle in Austin, you
might find it more important to keep up with how your home's market value is
doing. The best tool I’ve found to give you regular updates is Market Snapshot. This free service pulls data directly from our MLS (Multiple
Listing Service) for similar homes in your neighborhood on a regular basis
(every 2, 4, 6, 8, or 12 weeks) and emails it to you. Create one yourself for
your home here: Market Snapshot. It takes about 30 minutes to receive your report. Or, let me
know if you, or someone you know, wants me to create a Market Snapshot for
their home or even a traditional CMA (Comparative Market Analysis).
I'll leave you with a recent quote from noted Austin economist Angelos Angelou: "It is going to be a little bit of a slowdown, nowhere near a recession as far as I can tell," Angelou said. "The economy is still adding jobs so it does not feel like a recession, even if it may be one. Texas is not going to be affected as much, and Austin is going to be affected even less. The recession is going to hit different parts of the county differently.”
(512) 853-0110 or robert@AustinTxHomeSales.com
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