Here are the February/2023 MLS single-family statistics for Austin, TX:
February numbers look pretty bleak, right? However, keep in mind that we
are comparing Feb/2023 to Feb/2022 which was one of our last months from the
Covid-19 market frenzy starting in summer/2020. So, it is understandable
that we would have more red categories, above, since we are comparing a month
when our real estate market is softening to one that was still red-hot.
So, to give a more accurate analysis let’s compare the numbers above for
Feb/2023 to what we averaged in the five Februarys
before Covid: 2015-2019. As
you can see below, we still have some reds, but last month’s numbers aren’t
that far off from our more typical pre-Covid market.
Finally, let’s analyze our months of inventory which, I believe, is a very good indicator of future market activity. It is a number Realtors use that is calculated by taking the number of months it would take to sell all homes currently on the market at the current sales pace. A Seller's market is less than 6.0 months and a Buyer's market is over 6.0 months. So, you can clearly see in the chart below that our pre-Covid Austin metro market was a strong seller’s market the previous 5 years (2015-2019) with an average of 2.44 months. We dropped to historically low numbers during Covid starting in summer 2020 until about June/2022 (in yellow below) with 1.20 (2020), .70 (2021) and .72 (1st half of 2022). While the 2nd half of 2022 and the 1st 2 months of 2023 averaged 3.30 and 3.82, respectively which is only about 1.0 month more than what we averaged during 2015-2019. So, has our Austin metro market slowed down? Absolutely. Is it crashing? I don’t see that at all…it’s just making the typical adjustments we’ve seen in previous real estate cycles as they cooled off.
Austin Real Estate Market Update - Mar 2023 I’ve followed Texas National Title CEO David Tandy’s economic analysis for many years now and always find him to be knowledgeable, concise and unbiased. Here is his latest installment (done about twice a year) where our Austin metro real estate market is currently and what the future holds for us. For a more in-depth analysis of our local market, watch his presentation at the previous link (about 1 hour). Past editions can be found on my website: https://www.austintxhomesales.com/buyer-relocation-aides/.
I’m posting 3 of his slides below that I believe are very informative: Interest rates, median sales prices and positive news for our region of the country. The graph below is one of the best I’ve ever seen to show mortgage interest rates going back 52 years. You can clearly see how we’ve all been spoiled the past 10 years with 3-5% rates. Compare that to the average over the past 50+ years of 7.8% (or to today’s 6.73% rate as I type this).
slide below shows Austin Metro median home sales prices going back to 1990
where you can see just how strong our local market has been over the
years. And, as the red line shows, using 4.1% (closer to the average
annual appreciation for real estate going back decades) would have our median
home price sitting at $260,000. Yet, our median Austin home price last
month was $437,688 (+$177,688
Finally, David listed several things that are good news for our region of the country, below. As I’ve mentioned many times over the years with this newsletter, our Austin metro has been extremely strong and resilient for many, many decades. I don’t see anything that will change that and firmly believe we will be in the top 5-10 metros in the country–regardless of what the national economy does–for the foreseeable future.
(512) 853-0110 or robert@AustinTxHomeSales.com
If you are unable to open the link/article above, please let me know so I can get it to you another way.
#AustinHomes #MoveToAustin #Relocate #RelocateToAustin #AustinHomeBuyers
#AustinJobs #AustinRealEstate #HomeForSaleAustin #NewHomes #RealEstateMarket
#AustinHomeSellers #AustinHomeSales #AustinFebruaryHomeSales